‘India reached Covid-19 peak in September, likely to have over one crore cases by February 2021’
NEW DELHI: Number of active symptomatic Covid-19 cases in India has already peaked at around 10 lakhs on September 17 and the cases, which are now declining, may reach the cumulative figure of 1.06 crore with negligible growth by the end of February next year, a government’s expert committee said on Sunday. It means the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with “minimal active symptomatic infections” in February, 2021.
Releasing its projection based on a mathematical model, the Committee, however, said this number would start rising again if proper practices of masking, disinfecting, tracing, and quarantine were not followed.
“This is not a reason for us to relax because this nice downward trend will continue only if we continue with the protective measures,” said chairman of the panel, M Vidyasagar of the IIT Hyderabad, while making a virtual presentation of the findings of the Committee.
According to this panel, comprising scientists from IITs, IISc Bangalore, ISI Kolkata and CMC Vellore, India has, in fact, reached its peak four days earlier than the peak projection (September 21) made by this “COVID-19 India National Supermodel”.
The Committee, appointed by the ministry of science & technology to collate the collective expertise of the Indian scientific community, and to arrive at the model, has found that 30% of the country’s population, at present, is projected to have antibodies as against 14% in August end – it’s double the ICMR survey that had, projected that 7% of the population had antibodies in August end.
“This number being at 30% of the population with antibodies at the moment is good news as that is what the explanation for the downturn in this pandemic. The other point is that the cumulative mortality projected to be less than 0.04% of total infected,” said Vidyasagar.
In addition to these projections, the Committee, based on temporal profiles of analyses done for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, concluded that the impact of labour migration on the total number of infections in these states was minimal, indicating success of quarantine strategies adopted for the returning migrants.
The Committee also simulated what would have happened in hypothetical alternative scenarios with regard to the timing of lockdown regime and said with no lockdown, the pandemic would have hit India very hard, with a peak load of over 1.4 crore cases arriving in June.
“Had India waited until May to impose the lockdown, the peak load of active cases would have been around 50 lakhs by June,” it said, noting that the imposition of an early and comprehensive lockdown pushed the peak of cases far into the future and also reduced the peak load on the system.
It said the lockdown “flattened the curve”. Analysing the actual deaths from the pandemic with various alternative scenarios, the panel noted that without a lockdown the number of deaths in India would have overwhelmed the system within a very short timeframe, and would eventually have crossed 26 lakhs fatalities.
“Therefore, the imposition of an early and comprehensive lockdown pushed the peak of cases far into the future and also reduced the peak load on the system,” said Vidyasagar.
With making the projections, the Committee suggested that the fresh lockdowns should not be imposed on district and statewide levels, unless there is imminent danger of the healthcare facilities being overwhelmed.
It, however, emphasised that the existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure, noting that it does not yet know the weather-specific perturbations of this pandemic (in general, viruses tend to be more active in colder environment) and the effects of possible future mutations in the virus.
“Avoiding congestion especially in closed spaces and special care of those above 65 years and children is even more significant. Personnel with co-morbidities need to be extra cautious,” said the panel in its suggestions.
Doing a comparative analysis, the Committee noted that the imposition of various safety protocols such as wearing masks, social distancing etc., together with a comprehensive lockdown has allowed India to fare better than many other countries.
“India has one-sixth of the world’s population (one-fifth excluding China), and one-sixth of the reported cases. However, India accounts for only 10% of the world’s deaths, and its case fatality rate of less than 2% is among the lowest in the world. India’s fatality rate per million is about a tenth that of the European countries and the USA,” said the Committee.
‘It’s unfortunate’: Rahul Gandhi on Kamal Nath’s ‘item’ remark
NEW DELHI: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday said that he does not approve of the ‘item’ remark made by former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kamal Nath against state minister Imarti Devi. In the backdrop of the intense criticism faced by Congress for the senior leader’s allegedly sexist remarks, Rahul said it was “unfortunate”.
“Kamal Nath ji is from my party but personally, I don’t like the type of language that he used…I don’t appreciate it, regardless of who he is. It is unfortunate,” said Gandhi while addressing a press briefing in Wayanad.
Former chief minister Kamal Nath referred to Imarti Devi as an “item” at an election meeting in the Dabra (scheduled caste) assembly constituency in Gwalior district, sparking a controversy on Sunday.
“Suresh Raje ji hamare ummeedvar hai…yeh uske jaise nah hai…kya hai uska naam … main kya uska naam lun? …apko toh mujhe pehle savdhan karna chahiye tha … yeh kya item hai… (Our candidate is not like her… what’s her name? You know her better and should have warned me earlier… What an item!), Kamal Nath said in Hindi while the crowd called out Imarti Devi’s name.
However, Nath on Sunday said that he has already clarified the context in which he made that statement.
“It is Rahul Gandhi’s opinion. I have already clarified the context in which I made that statement…Why should I apologise when I did not intend to insult anyone? If anyone felt insulted, I have already expressed regret,” said the former MP.
(With inputs from agencies)
Bihar assembly election phase 1: 31% candidates with criminal cases
NEW DELHI: In the phase one of Bihar assembly
2020, as many as 328 (31%) candidates are with criminal cases and 244 (23%) are with serious criminal cases, according to a recent analysis done by the election watchdog Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR). The watchdog analysed self-sworn affidavits of 1064 out of 1066 candidates contesting phase one of the election.
Among political parties, RJD has fielded most number of candidates with criminal background, followed by BJP.
Also, out of the 1064 candidates analysed by the watchdog, 375 (35%) are crorepatis. The average assets of candidates contesting phase 1 election is Rs 1.99 crores.
Of this 9% candidates have wealth of Rs 5 crore and above, while 12% have wealth between Rs 2 and Rs 5 crore.
Pandemic to shave off 40% operating profit of pvt hospitals: Report
MUMBAI: The pandemic will eat up around 40 per cent of the operational profit of private hospitals this fiscal, as billing has plunged drastically due to the virus outbreak and the resultant proclivity of people to avoid hospitals for non-emergency situations, says a report.
The Crisil report released on Tuesday, however, noted that a large number of pandemic cases, which though is low-margin, will get these hospitals an additional revenue to the tune of 15-20 per cent.
Further, with the relaxation in lockdown and travel restrictions, footfalls have started improving from July, helping bed-occupancy levels.
The report also expects bed-occupancy levels to stabilise 65-70 per cent of the pre-lockdown levels in the second half of the fiscal. This, along with additional revenue from the pandemic treatment will help limit overall decline in revenue to 16-18 per cent, as against 17 per cent annual growth logged in the two preceding fiscals, it said.
Since the pandemic-driven lockdowns that began late March, hospitals have been on a crisis path as people began to avoid going to hospitals for regular consultations and began to postpone elective surgeries, which have been the most lucrative procedures for any hospital, especially organ transplants among others.
“A triple whammy of postponement in elective surgeries, revenue loss from the highly profitable medical tourism segment, and increasing costs will lead to 35-40 per cent reduction in operating profit of private hospitals this fiscal,” Crisil said.
The report is based on the analysis of 40 hospitals, including 36 rated by the agency, which account for over Rs 36,000 crore of the sector’s revenue.
Even though the trauma and emergency treatment account for 28-30 per cent of revenue continued, but at a much lower level, given the fewer accidents during the lockdowns.
On top of these, medical tourism, which accounts for 10-12 per cent of revenue but gets the highest margins, especially for large hospitals, came to a complete standstill, due to travel restrictions imposed as part of the lockdowns.
However, the pandemic is set to bring them around 20 per cent of the revenue despite low margin.
“Treating COVID-19 patients is expected to provide an additional revenue stream and may contribute 15-20 per cent to revenue this fiscal. But it is not as profitable as other revenue streams. Additionally, given the high fixed cost structure of hospitals, lower overall occupancy will result in lesser absorption of overheads.
“This, coupled with the increased cost of safety and sanitation will lead to 35-40 per cent decline in operating profit this fiscal,” the report said.
Weakened operating performance accentuated cash-flow challenges in the first half and to manage the situation, hospitals have deferred 35-40 per cent of planned capex for this fiscal, and are now resorting to short-term debt funding.
About a third of the agency-rated hospitals also availed moratorium for loan repayments which supported their liquidity during the first half.
Nonetheless, the credit outlook for the sector remains moderately negative, with credit metrics being impacted primarily by lower profit, the report said adding that the deterioration in performance is expected to be only temporary, and a strong bounce-back is likely in the next fiscal supported by pent up demand.
“Elective surgeries cannot be postponed indefinitely and medical tourism is also expected to recoup as travel restrictions ease. We expect a healthy 25 per cent revenue growth in fiscal 2022, and operating profitability to recover to pre-pandemic levels, including due to lower share of less-profitable treatment for the pandemic patients,” the report said.
Workplace by Facebook | What is it & Why Big Companies are Using it?
Workplace by Facebook is a leading connectivity platform, a Workplace is a Communication tool for a company and business. The...
Facebook vs Twitter, Who Made Progress in Fighting Hate Speech?
Facebook vs Twitter: Who made progress in fighting Hate Speech? You will find out in this Article of the Facebook...
Breaking: Facebook Removes 100’s of QAnon Group Accounts
Facebook Removes Accounts (Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior). Facebook is known for transparency and protecting users from bad actors. Today May 5,...
You May Like
Tony Ricca WWE Former Wrestler says “I Feel Impersonated on Twitter”
Tony Ricca, also known as Thomas Ricca and known as the former WWE Professional Wrestler, told EMEA TRIBUNE, I feel...
Rinki Sethi is Appointed as a new CISO of Twitter Company Announced
September 29, 2020: Twitter appoints Rinki Sethi as its new Chief Information Security Officer; Rinki is a former information security...
John Starr Twitter Director Left the Company after 6 years
In April 2020 John Starr Twitter Director of Trust & Safety Left the Company after 6 years of incredible work....
‘100% our fault’: Twitter apologizes for ‘racist’ photo-cropping algorithm as Team Woke scores another touchdown
A senior Twitter engineer has expressed contrition after a viral thread accused the platform’s photo-cropping algorithm of preferring white faces...
PM Modi’s Twitter account linked to personal site hacked, restored
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (ANI photo) NEW DELHI: The global Twitter celebrity hack hit India as an account linked to...
Account of PM Modi’s personal website hacked, Twitter confirms
BENGALURU: Twitter confirmed on Thursday that an account of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ‘s personal website was hacked with a...
Black Lives Matter
Wyandotte woman charged for injured people at Black Lives Matter protest
A Wyandotte woman whose age is 68 years old was charged on Monday in a hit-and-run incident during a protest...
Amy Cooper is charged for calling Police on Black Bird Watcher
Central Park birdwatching incident: Amy Cooper is charged by the Police for filing a false report, The Incident happened in...
What is Juneteenth day? And How to Celebrate Juneteenth Day
Many of you don’t know about Juneteenth and many people ask me What is Juneteenth day? so in this short...
Rayshard Brooks was killed by an Atlanta Police officer
Killing of Rayshard Brooks: Rayshard Brooks Shooting: Rayshard Brooks was an unarmed black man 27 years old, he was sleeping...
Lakeith Smith sentenced to 65 years in prison for a murder
Lakeith Smith Story: Lakeith Smith is an Alabama teen, he was sentenced to 65 years in prison for a murder...
WORLD2 days ago
Protest against Covid-19 rules in Prague escalates into clashes with police (VIDEOS)
Entertainment7 days ago
Abdullah Salem Obaid Mohammed Al Kaabi shared the valuable skill that requires a stable manager needs to be performed well.
WORLD5 days ago
Model claims she was told to wear ‘DIRTY’ used surgical mask over her own on Ryanair flight
WORLD3 days ago
Afghan-born ‘Swede of the year’ loses education & integration adviser jobs over newly discovered anti-Semitic, homophobic posts
WORLD6 days ago
Japanese researchers say air humidity a major risk factor for Covid-19, especially during winter months
WORLD3 days ago
Beheaded French teacher was DOXXED online, while mosque shared parent’s complaint over ‘naked man’ caricature of Prophet Mohammed
INDIA6 days ago
Wife’s 498A complaint costs advocate husband judge post
INDIA4 days ago
10 yrs after bid to kill friend, two techies get 7 years in jail in Bengaluru